Updated Tuesday Sep. 16
2025 MLB Playoff Odds
MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.
| TEAM | GURU RANK |
PRESEASON PROJECTIONPRESEASON PROJ |
CURRENT PROJECTIONCURRENT PROJ |
CHANGE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Blue JaysTOR88-62
|
6th | 29.5% | >99% | + 69.5% |
| 2 |
PadresSD82-68
|
10th | 49.8% | >99% | + 49.2% |
| 3 |
TigersDET85-65
|
8th | 50.2% | >99% | + 48.8% |
| 4 |
BrewersMIL91-59
|
1st | 51.1% | >99% | + 47.9% |
| 5 |
CubsCHC86-64
|
5th | 52.1% | >99% | + 46.9% |
| 6 |
PhilliesPHI90-61
|
2nd | 60.0% | >99% | + 39% |
| 7 |
DodgersLAD84-66
|
4th | 88.6% | >99% | + 10.4% |
| 8 |
YankeesNYY83-67
|
3rd | 62.8% | 98.5% | + 35.7% |
| 9 |
MarinersSEA82-68
|
11th | 59.4% | 95.4% | + 36% |
| 10 |
Red SoxBOS82-68
|
7th | 49.1% | 92.0% | + 42.9% |
| 11 |
AstrosHOU82-69
|
13th | 66.2% | 77.9% | + 11.7% |
| 12 |
MetsNYM77-73
|
12th | 70.9% | 70.9% | 0.0% |
| 13 |
RangersTEX79-72
|
9th | 39.0% | 25.6% | - 13.4% |
| 14 |
DiamondbacksARI76-75
|
14th | 61.4% | 11.1% | - 50.3% |
| 15 |
GuardiansCLE78-71
|
16th | 38.5% | 10.9% | - 27.6% |
| 16 |
RedsCIN75-75
|
18th | 20.9% | 10.5% | - 10.4% |
| 17 |
GiantsSF75-75
|
17th | 31.2% | 7.7% | - 23.5% |
| 18 |
RockiesCOL41-109
|
30th | <1% | <1% | 0.0% |
| 19 |
White SoxCHW57-94
|
29th | <1% | <1% | 0.0% |
| 20 |
MarlinsMIA70-80
|
27th | <1% | <1% | 0.0% |
| 21 |
NationalsWSH62-88
|
28th | 3.5% | <1% | - 2.5% |
| 22 |
AngelsLAA69-81
|
25th | 5.5% | <1% | - 4.5% |
| 23 |
PiratesPIT65-86
|
26th | 12.5% | <1% | - 11.5% |
| 24 |
CardinalsSTL73-78
|
22nd | 17.9% | <1% | - 16.9% |
| 25 |
AthleticsOAK70-80
|
23rd | 20.9% | <1% | - 19.9% |
| 26 |
RaysTB73-77
|
15th | 37.2% | <1% | - 36.2% |
| 27 |
RoyalsKC75-75
|
19th | 43.6% | <1% | - 42.6% |
| 28 |
OriolesBAL70-80
|
21st | 48.7% | <1% | - 47.7% |
| 29 |
TwinsMIN66-84
|
24th | 49.6% | <1% | - 48.6% |
| 30 |
BravesATL67-83
|
20th | 79.1% | <1% | - 78.1% |
How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.
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