Updated Monday Oct. 2

2023 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
DiamondbacksARI84-78
19th 9.9% >99%
+ 89.1%
2
OriolesBAL101-61
11th 11.4% >99%
+ 87.6%
3
MarlinsMIA84-77
17th 13.7% >99%
+ 85.3%
4
RangersTEX90-72
7th 22.6% >99%
+ 76.4%
5
TwinsMIN87-75
10th 51.4% >99%
+ 47.6%
6
BrewersMIL92-70
12th 51.5% >99%
+ 47.5%
7
RaysTB99-63
3rd 55.9% >99%
+ 43.1%
8
PhilliesPHI90-72
8th 67.8% >99%
+ 31.2%
9
Blue JaysTOR89-73
9th 68.4% >99%
+ 30.6%
10
BravesATL104-58
1st 82.7% >99%
+ 16.3%
11
AstrosHOU90-72
4th 87.0% >99%
+ 12%
12
DodgersLAD100-62
2nd 88.4% >99%
+ 10.6%
13
NationalsWSH71-91
27th <1% <1%
0.0%
14
AthleticsOAK50-112
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
15
RockiesCOL59-103
29th 1.4% <1%
- 0.4%
16
RoyalsKC56-106
28th 2.4% <1%
- 1.4%
17
RedsCIN82-80
21st 3.5% <1%
- 2.5%
18
TigersDET78-84
23rd 3.7% <1%
- 2.7%
19
PiratesPIT76-86
25th 3.8% <1%
- 2.8%
20
CubsCHC83-79
14th 18.6% <1%
- 17.6%
21
Red SoxBOS78-84
16th 19.2% <1%
- 18.2%
22
GiantsSF79-83
18th 28.1% <1%
- 27.1%
23
AngelsLAA73-89
22nd 34.2% <1%
- 33.2%
24
White SoxCHW61-101
26th 41.0% <1%
- 40%
25
MarinersSEA88-74
6th 56.0% <1%
- 55%
26
GuardiansCLE76-86
20th 61.3% <1%
- 60.3%
27
CardinalsSTL71-91
24th 66.5% <1%
- 65.5%
28
PadresSD82-80
5th 81.0% <1%
- 80%
29
MetsNYM74-87
15th 82.7% <1%
- 81.7%
30
YankeesNYY82-80
13th 84.6% <1%
- 83.6%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FiveThirtyEight, numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.