Updated Friday Sep. 24

2021 MLB Playoff Odds

MLB team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

TEAM GURU
RANK
PRESEASON
PROJECTION
PRESEASON
PROJ
CURRENT
PROJECTION
CURRENT
PROJ
CHANGE
1
GiantsSF99-54
4th 5.8% >99%
+ 93.2%
2
BrewersMIL91-62
9th 32.4% >99%
+ 66.6%
3
RaysTB94-59
3rd 44.1% >99%
+ 54.9%
4
White SoxCHW86-67
7th 61.4% >99%
+ 37.6%
5
AstrosHOU91-62
2nd 68.4% >99%
+ 30.6%
6
DodgersLAD98-55
1st 95.6% >99%
+ 3.4%
7
CardinalsSTL84-69
13th 40.8% 95.8%
+ 55%
8
Red SoxBOS88-65
10th 15.8% 94.0%
+ 78.2%
9
BravesATL80-71
6th 62.6% 81.1%
+ 18.5%
10
Blue JaysTOR85-68
5th 44.2% 58.4%
+ 14.2%
11
YankeesNYY86-67
8th 86.5% 42.3%
- 44.2%
12
PhilliesPHI79-74
15th 18.4% 20.0%
+ 1.6%
13
MarinersSEA84-69
18th 4.5% 5.1%
+ 0.6%
14
RedsCIN78-75
16th 30.1% 2.3%
- 27.8%
15
OriolesBAL49-104
30th <1% <1%
0.0%
16
PiratesPIT57-95
29th <1% <1%
0.0%
17
RockiesCOL71-81
23rd <1% <1%
0.0%
18
TigersDET74-78
22nd 1.5% <1%
- 0.5%
19
RangersTEX55-98
27th 2.2% <1%
- 1.2%
20
MarlinsMIA64-88
24th 2.4% <1%
- 1.4%
21
RoyalsKC69-83
25th 6.1% <1%
- 5.1%
22
DiamondbacksARI49-104
28th 6.7% <1%
- 5.7%
23
CubsCHC67-86
26th 24.2% <1%
- 23.2%
24
NationalsWSH64-89
19th 27.7% <1%
- 26.7%
25
IndiansCLE75-77
17th 28.0% <1%
- 27%
26
AngelsLAA73-80
21st 31.0% <1%
- 30%
27
AthleticsOAK82-71
12th 42.3% <1%
- 41.3%
28
TwinsMIN68-85
20th 63.8% <1%
- 62.8%
29
MetsNYM73-79
14th 69.0% <1%
- 68%
30
PadresSD77-75
11th 82.8% <1%
- 81.8%

How We Calculate: Our playoff probabilities are calculated by averaging predictions from FiveThirtyEight, numberFire and Team Rankings. The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. The change in these two predictions is also shown.